Predictions put into Practice: a Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of Chicago's Predictive Policing Pilot
"In 2013, the Chicago Police Department conducted a pilot of a predictive
policing program designed to reduce gun violence. The program included
development of a Strategic Subjects List (SSL) of people estimated to be
at highest risk of gun violence who were then referred to local police
commanders for a preventive intervention. The purpose of this study is
to identify the impact of the pilot on individual- and city-level gun
violence, and to test possible drivers of results.
Individuals on the SSL are not more or less likely to become a victim of
a homicide or shooting than the comparison group, and this is further
supported by city-level analysis. The treated group is more likely to be
arrested for a shooting.
It is not clear how the predictions should be used in the field. One
potential reason why being placed on the list resulted in an increased
chance of being arrested for a shooting is that some officers may have
used the list as leads to closing shooting cases. The results provide
for a discussion about the future of individual-based predictive
policing programs."
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