How to Uproot a "Tree of Death"
"Predictive tools can now track how a single shooting incident triggers a
lethal cascade of gunshot violence—and predict who will be targeted
...Researchers Ben Green and Thibaut
Horel at Harvard and Andrew Papachristos at Yale used a social contagion
model and tried to predict gunshot victimization in Chicago between
2006 and 2014.
Using police records of people arrested together for the same offense,
they mapped a network of 138,163 subjects and looked at the spread of
violence within it. Their model, based on the ones epidemiologists use
to understand contagion, assumed that shootings were likely to spread
between co-arrestees, who would have close social ties and engage in
risky behavior together. When they ran probabilities on people linked to
a shooting victim, what they found was staggering: 63 percent of the
11,123 total shootings in the network were part of a longer chain of
gunshot victimization. The closer someone was to a victim, the greater
the risk of being shot."
View the Study