"How do ‘people power’ movements succeed when modest proportions of the
population participate? Here we propose that the effects of social
movements increase as they gain momentum. We approximate a simple law
drawn from physics: momentum equals mass times velocity (p = mv).
We propose that the momentum of dissent is a product of participation
(mass) and the number of protest events in a week (velocity). We test
this simple physical proposition against panel data on the potential
effects of movement momentum on irregular leader exit in African
countries between 1990 and 2014, using a variety of estimation
techniques. Our findings show that social movements potentially
compensate for relatively modest popular support by concentrating their
activities in time, thus increasing their disruptive capacity. Notably,
these findings also provide a straightforward way for dissidents to
easily quantify their coercive potential by assessing their
participation rates and increased concentration of their activities over
time."
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