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New York Crime Statistics: What the Researchers Say

To the Editor:

Re “Crime by the Numbers,” by William Bratton (Op-Ed, Feb. 17):

Mr. Bratton refers to a survey conducted by us. After reading the article, which disparages our research, we feel it necessary to respond.

The New York City Police Department, which has led the nation in producing historical and very real reductions in crime, is in a cramped statistical box. When precincts are under pressure to continue to reduce crime, the message radiates down to all levels. Combating their own success, the police imaginatively redouble efforts to achieve further reductions. Compstat serves as a mechanism to ensure these reductions.

Our previous writings explored how the Police Department’s Compstat system for tracking crime contributed to the city’s sharp drop in crime.

We still believe that there has been a significant drop in crime and that the fundamentals of Compstat are sound. But like the retired police commanders we surveyed and numerous other scientific studies, we also see the underside of Compstat.

Only long-neglected departmental transparency will assuage the department’s current condition. The Citizens Crime Commission’s recommendations for sharing data and internal audits are an important first step.

We have great respect for the past and present leadership of the N.Y.P.D. Our findings warrant the same respect.

Eli B. Silverman
John A. Eterno
Rockville Centre, N.Y., Feb. 22, 2010

Mr. Silverman is professor emeritus at John Jay College of Criminal Justice and the author of “N.Y.P.D. Battles Crime: Innovative Strategies in Policing.” Mr. Eterno, a retired N.Y.P.D. captain, is associate dean and director of graduate studies at Molloy College.

This letter to the New York Times is in response to an earlier Crimbrary post Crime by the Numbers. Tom

Crime by the Numbers

By WILLIAM BRATTON

A RECENT survey of retired New York Police Department personnel strongly implies that the police’s reporting of crime statistics in New York City has been skewed for years, with precinct commanders and others downgrading crimes to make their results look better. According to the survey’s authors, criminologists John Eterno and Eli Silverman, and to spokesmen for the Captains Endowment Association, the pressures exerted by the department’s CompStat crime-tracking program forced commanders and their subordinates to manipulate statistics to protect themselves from abuse at CompStat meetings, where their results were discussed. Nothing could be further from the truth.

CompStat originated on my watch as police commissioner, from 1994 through early 1996, and I acknowledge that it was intended to be a tough system, using rigorous weekly reports to refocus commanders on combating crime. Nevertheless, I believe that very few precinct commanders would downgrade crimes under such pressure — and that there wouldn’t have been much effect on overall crime rates even if they had.

Read on...

An editorial in the New York Times. Tom